Italy kept the project budget in 2019, contrary to the claims of Brussels

The government sent to the European Commission’s draft budget for next year unchanged, despite the requirements to bring it into line with EU requirements. The previous version of the document was rejected

Giovanni Tria

(Photo: Zeus / Zuma / TASS)

The head of the Ministry of economy and Finance of Italy Giovanni Tria sent to the European Commission the Council of Ministers the draft budget of the country in 2019. About it reports a press-service of the Ministry.

The agreed-upon indicators of the budget of the Italian government left unchanged. Like additional cover letters Minister (.pdf) that describes the strategy and content of the budget for next year, the deficit remains at 2.4% of GDP, the growth forecast is at 1.5%.

To accelerate the reduction in the ratio of debt and GDP growth, as well as reduce risks of possible macroeconomic shocks, the Italian government plans tighter control of costs and will intensify the privatisation of state assets: the income from it, the authorities intend to increase to 1% of GDP in 2019. According to the developers budget, this will reduce the debt to GDP ratio by 0.3 percentage points this year, by 1.7 percentage points in 2019 and 1.9 percentage points in 2020.

The price of Brent crude oil fell by $5 per day

For one trading session, a barrel of Brent crude oil fell more than $5, the price fell below $65. The previous trades were closed at a mark of $70 per barrel. Falling per day exceeded 7%

Photo: Lucy Nicholson / Reuters

At the auctions in London the price of Brent crude oil fell below $65 per barrel. and reached $64,64, according to the exchange ICE. Last time at this level, the oil traded in March 2018.

The price of oil falls for the sixth consecutive week, Tuesday, November 13, dropping by more than 7%. On the local maximum 3 Oct the price of oil exceeded $86 per barrel for two months, a barrel of Brent fell by more than $20.

Us WTI crude oil also fell in the previous auction closed at $60 per barrel. as of 23:00 Moscow time WTI traded below $55 per barrel. however, later the price rose again slightly above this level.

GDP was very lean: how the MAYOR explained the slowing economy

The growth of Russia’s GDP in the third quarter of 2018 was 1.3%, falling below the summer indicators. Economy has slowed due to sanctions and a weak harvest, and analysts do not expect significant acceleration

Photo: Pavel Golovkin / AP

Why GDP began to grow slower?

In the third quarter Russian GDP growth was 1.3% compared to the same period last year, said Tuesday Rosstat. Thus, the economic growth slowed down, returning to the levels of the first quarter, then he, too, was 1.3%, however, in April—June accelerated to 1.9%.

This is only the first evaluation of Rosstat, in which he does not give a detailed breakdown for GDP growth. However, their assessment is conducting economic development Ministry on the basis of monthly Rosstat data previously predicted growth in the third quarter by 1.3%. The slowdown is due to several factors:

The price of Brent crude oil dropped more than 5%

Falling of cost of oil futures continued. The price of Brent crude trading at below $66 for the first time since March

Photo: Hasan Jamali / AP

The Brent oil price at auction on the ICE exchange on Tuesday evening, November 13, I dropped down to the level below $66 a barrel for contracts with delivery in January 2019, according to data exchange. As of 21:11 GMT the price of $65,96.

During a day of crude oil lost in the price more than 5.9%. The level of $66 per barrel last recorded in March.

Despite this, the Russian currency on the Moscow stock exchange is not much falls against the dollar and the Euro. As of 21:10, the dollar rose 0.14 RUB, to 67,98 Euro — 0.39 RUB, RUB to 76.58

The state Duma supported the tax for self-employed in the main reading

The state Duma adopted in the second, mainly reading a package of laws on the introduction of a new tax for self-employed. Requirements softened, fines reduced, removing the minimum value, they will not be charged for the first year

The Chairman of the state Duma Committee on budget and taxes Andrey Makarov (center)

(Photo: Sergey Fadeichev / TASS)

The lower house of the Federal Assembly of Tuesday, November 13, adopted in the second reading the package of documents on introduction of an experimental tax on professional income of self-employed citizens, should card bill in the database of the state Duma.

Penalties eased

The approved version of the bill includes the modified compared to the first version of the penalty provisions to participants in the experiment. If after the first reading, it was assumed that the self-employed must issue fiscal receipts for goods or services, and for non-issuance or incorrect formation of the check provided the penalty is 20% of the amount of calculation, but not less than RUB 1 thousand (for the second violation within six months — 100% of the amount, but not less than 5 thousand rubles), it is now a requirement to issue a fiscal receipt is removed, and the penalties are without the minimum values in rubles. Thus, for violation of the order and/or timing of the transfer of tax information produced by the calculation relies fine of 20% of the total payment (100% in case of repeat violation).

The price of a barrel of Brent fell to $3.5, and pulled down the ruble

The cost of a barrel of Brent on the London stock exchange for the first time since the beginning of April fell below $67. Against the background of falling oil prices went up, the dollar and the Euro

Photo: Gregory Dukov / Reuters

The price of a barrel of Brent oil on the London stock exchange on the evening of 13 November, fell sharply. At a minimum, the price dropped to $of 66.67, or $3.45 minutes or 4,92% below the closing level of the previous trading session.

Below $67 per barrel the price of Brent crude dropped for the first time from 6 April 2018, and at the peak of the fall approached the level recorded on 20 March this year.

Against the background of falling oil prices on Moscow stock exchange went down and the ruble. At 18:43 GMT the dollar on the Moscow exchange reached the mark 68,1575 RUB, approximately 31 kopecks. above the closing level of the previous auction and more than 0.5 rubles above the low of the day. Simultaneously, the Euro rose to RUB 76,7875 (+56,75 kopecks to the previous close of trading).

The experts assessed the probability of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil

Among the sanctions, which is preparing to introduce against Russia, the U.S. state Department, it may be a ban on the import of Russian oil, has warned its customers FGE analysts. In 2017, the US bought Russian oil at $7-8 billion

Photo: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg

The second round of us sanctions because of “the things Skrypalia” should be announced in the near future, under the sanctions fall the Russian oil supplies or oil products in the United States, wrote in a note to clients international consulting firm FGE, specializing in the analysis of oil and gas markets. “New sanctions could potentially include a ban on the importation of any Russian products in the USA <…> and/or a further restriction of the export of us technology and goods to Russia. With regard to the oil sector, this means that approximately 350-400 thousand barrels. in day of export of oil and petroleum products in the United States is at risk,” says senior analyst at FGE in London Dora Polga in a client note dated 12 November (have RBC).

The possibility of sanctions against the import of Russian oil has drawn the attention of industry and the S&P Global Platts.

On 6 November, the US state Department confirmedthat Russia will enter the second package of sanctions under the law on the control of chemical and biological weapons from 1991. In September, the state Department promised that these sanctions will be “harsh” (the first round was rather symbolic). By law, the administration of Donald trump obliged to apply at least three of the following six measures:

The IEA has predicted a significant shortage of oil by the mid-2020s

This may be due to the fact that at the present time, the volume of investment and number of approved projects for drilling wells do not meet steadily increasing market demand, said the head of the organization

Photo: Callaghan O’hare / Bloomberg

The head of the International energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol in an interview with CNBC , saidthat in the next decathlete on the world oil market there would be a substantial deficit.

According to the forecast of the organization in the next few years, the demand for hydrocarbons will grow steadily due to the growth needs of the industry. However, says Birol, by mid 2020-ies due to the fact that to date in Russia and Saudi Arabia approved only a small number of projects for the drilling, the world market faces a supply crisis.

“We are seeing a serious problem. On the one hand, strong demand for oil, which promote the growth of trucks, airplanes, ships, and-perhaps most important — the petrochemical industry. But, on the other hand, when we look at investments and approved on today’s projects, there is a serious gap between demand growth and approved projects,” he said.

Russia set a new post-Soviet record oil production

In October, Russia set a new record of oil production in the post-Soviet period, increasing it in comparison with September on 50 thousand Barr. a day. The level of production was 11.6 million barrels./day, said OPEC

Photo: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg

Average daily oil production in Russia in October 2018 was 11.6 million barrels., that was a new record since the Soviet era, says the report of OPEC. Compared to September, daily production has increased by 50 thousand Barr.

“Russia set a new post-Soviet record oil production in October, increasing production compared to the previous month by 50 thousand Barr./day, to the average values of 11.6 million barrels./day, according to preliminary estimates,” said the organization. Compared to October 2017 this figure rose to 290 thousand Barr./day.

Raiffeisenbank made the growth of the dollar above 70 rubles to the end of the year

By the end of the year the dollar may cost more than 70 rubles., estimated the analysts of Raiffeisenbank. The Russian currency will weaken even at current oil prices and the absence of operations of the Ministry of Finance on procurement currency

Photo: Andrey Gordeev / statements / TASS

The dollar by the end of 2018 can exceed 70 RUB, allow analysts of Raiffeisenbank in the review, received by RBC.

“The assumption of conservation of oil and the ruble at its current level ($70 per barrel and 68 rubles per dollar), according to our estimates, in the remaining two months of this year, the current account balance will be $12.5 billion, which is insufficient for foreign debt payments ($14.3 billion with a peak payout of $8 billion in December) and the continuing outflow of residents from OFZ. As a consequence, the more likely the weakening of the ruble to the end of the year, even in the absence of intervention (perhaps exceeding the level of 70 rubles per dollar at the current oil)”, — stated in the review.

Monday afternoon, the ruble was trading around the level of 67.7 rubles per dollar. In mid-October, the dollar was worth about 65.5 rubles