The real expenses of Russians grew in September for the first time in three years



Photo: Anton vergun/TASS

The real costs of the Russians in September rose for the first time in 2013, said the research holding “ROMIR”. The increase in costs is observed on the background of falling incomes

Real spending in September showed a positive trend, according to the research of holding “ROMIR”, submitted to RBC. If in August, cleared from inflation of expenditures of Russians in cities with a population of over 100 thousand was 98% from January 2012 (it oriented analysts) in the first month of autumn, the figure was 103%. The growth of real expenditures on a monthly basis in September, recorded for the first time in 2013: in 2015 spending Russians in September fell by 1 percentage point, and in 2014 fell by 10 PP At the end of September 2016, spending rose by 4.8% (this is much stronger monthly inflation, which, according to Rosstat, amounted to 0.2%) and 6.3% by September of last year (when prices rise 6.4%).

Spending increased in September after a sharp decline in August. Then spending of Russians fell below the level of the beginning of 2012. In September, the same growth “showed all regions, all types of cities, all income groups,” notes “ROMIR”. However, as pointed out by the experts of the holding, on a “clean” spending current year “behind the previous three, and especially in 2013”.

The highest growth of prices was observed in cities with population over 500 thousand people (plus 8.2 per cent in annual and monthly terms). Among income groups lead the Russians with average income (plus 7.3 percent compared to August and a plus of 8.9% compared to September 2015). Them “can rightly be considered generic drivers for the September growth,” analysts write. The research was conducted among 35 thousand Russians in 181 city with a population of over 10 thousand people.

The level of real spending in September was still about the same level as in the previous two years (103-104%). The nominal expenses increased to September maximum of five years (152%).

Spending growth in September occurred against a backdrop of falling real incomes. By the end of the year, as it expects the Ministry of economic development, they will fall to 4.7–4.9 per cent.

The Agency has lowered its forecast in September. Earlier in the base case was for a decline of 2.8%. The new forecast was closer to the old conservative (pessimistic), which included a drop of 5%. According to Rosstat, in the last month of summer, real income declined by 8.3% in annual terms — this is the maximum drop in seven years.

The Finance Ministry has proposed to almost double fines for tax evasion



Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina/RBC

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The Finance Ministry proposes to increase penalties for failure to pay taxes almost doubled — from 1/180 to 1/300 of the refinancing rate. This proposal is designed to make the Institute more effective penalties, contained in the draft guidelines for tax policy

The Finance Ministry plans to make more effective instrument of fines for this are offered in the draft guidelines for tax policy to increase penalties for non-payment of taxes and fees 1/180 to 1/300 of the refinancing rate. About it write “sheets” acquainted with the document.

The newspaper reminds that in 2015, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov complained that the low level of penalties turned nonpayment of taxes and fees in the original loan due to the budget.

Under the current key rate of 10%, which is equal to the refinancing rate, penalties remain cheaper Bank credit of 12.17% vs. 15.8% for ruble loans, said the newspaper’s managing partner Dmitry Taxadvisor Kostalgin. In his opinion, the increase of penalties must make unprofitable loan at public expense.

Currently, about 85% of tax arrears falls on debts of the companies, despite the fact that some of them shell companies and bankrupts. For especially large debtors accounted for 10% of the total debt.

According to the President of Club of Bank accountants Kirill Parfenov, the Ministry’s initiative will stimulate only the solvency of the company.

The IMF predicted growth of Russia’s GDP in purchasing power parity terms in 2016



IMF chief Christine Lagarde

Photo: Brian Lawless/PA Images/TASS

Although Russia’s GDP will decline this year, when converted at purchasing power parity it will grow by 0.5%, follows from the updated forecasts of the IMF. Previously, the Fund had expected a decline on this indicator the second year in a row

According to the updated forecasts of the International monetary Fund, Russia’s GDP in PPP terms in 2016 will increase by 0.54 percent in 2015 (from $3,72 trillion to $3,74 trillion). In previous versions of forecasts from April 2016, the IMF suggested that Russia’s GDP at PPP will decrease for the second consecutive year (from $3,72 trillion to $3,68 trillion). Thus, the IMF raised its estimate of Russia’s GDP in PPP terms this year by 1.6%.

Measuring GDP at purchasing power parity gives the possibility to make international comparisons of economies. Russia on this indicator remains in sixth place, ahead of Brazil but behind Germany (see table). First place in the world is China (with a forecast $of 21.27 trillion this year). China overtook the US in 2014 and will increase his lead in 2016 to $2.7 trillion — about the size of the French economy. In third place is India, whose GDP in PPP terms will increase this year more than anyone in the top twenty largest economies by 9 percent.

In the top-20 only Brazil’s GDP (PPP) for the year decrease (2%). Russia, though will avoid a second consecutive annual fall, will show the weakest momentum after Brazil, and its share in world production will continue to decline (from 3.26 to 3.15% and 3% by 2018).

Russia’s GDP in PPP terms will exceed $4 trillion in 2018 — a year earlier than assumed in the April version of the forecasts. Per capita, Russia’s GDP in PPP terms in 2016 will grow from $25,96 thousand to $26.1 thousand

“Capital” of Russia’s GDP in constant prices in rubles — in 2016 will shrink by 0.8% in 2017 increase by 1.1%, the IMF predicts. It’s better than previous estimates (minus 1.2% and plus 1% respectively). At a press conference in connection with the October forecast economist of the IMF Jean-Marie Milesi-Ferretti noted that the monetary policy conducted in Russia, helped to limit the negative effect of sanctions and falling oil prices.

PPP GDP is an important indicator in measuring the welfare state in comparison with other countries. The final cost of domestically produced goods and services this indicator is calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity ratio of national currency to US dollar based on purchasing power. The IMF expects GDP in PPP on the basis of studies of the International comparisons program, which exists under the auspices of the world Bank.



 

The Ministry decided to rid the Supervisory authorities from the “cane system”



The Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev

Photo: Yekaterina Shtukina/RIA Novosti

The Ministry of economic development has developed a draft presidential decree that will help to get rid of the “cane system” in Supervisory bodies. They will be judged not by the number of inspections and amount of damage, which can prevent

The Ministry of economic development has prepared a document to combat “cane system” all regulatory authorities. The draft presidential decree, which established the Department, introduced the criteria for assessment of activity of bodies of control and supervision. The latter include, for example, emergencies Ministry, interior Ministry, Roskomnadzor, Rosselkhoznadzor etc.

The document posted on the portal regulation.gov.ru nine indicators. So, the Ministry of economic development proposes to assess the performance of agencies by number of citizens killed or injured as a result of the phenomena, the removal of which directed their work. Among other criteria, the material damage caused to citizens, companies and state, harm competition, financial stability, defence, and cultural heritage and the environment. A separate issue is the damage to public morals.

A similar list was developed for the first time, told RBC press Secretary of the Ministry Elena Lashkina. The Ministry of economic development in may conducted a pilot project on new approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of control. It was attended by seven Federal control agencies. The result was the decision to develop a presidential decree.

From a punitive system to a warning

Previously, regulatory authorities have evaluated only the number of inspections and amount of fines is “cane system,” said a member of the General Council of “Business Russia” Mikhail Rozenfeld and confirms laskina. “This approach encourages the inspectors to prevent damage, and to the mandatory identification of violations and punishment of entrepreneurs”, — said the press service of “open government”.

According to the Vice-President “Support of Russia” Marina bludyan businesses today have more than 650 thousand safety requirements: “the Entrepreneur knows that if they come to him relying, he must find something”. Criteria of good work of Supervisory body may be only the absence of deaths or cases of damage to health, the rest is secondary, categorical it.

The project aims to change the “cane system” and direct the organs of control and supervision in the achievement of socially significant results, said Lashkina. “The work of the regulatory bodies need to rebuild from the punitive system of protective, preventive and precautionary, to focus their work on prevention and damage prevention, not punishment,” — said at the investment forum in Sochi by the Minister for open government Mikhail Abyzov.

Now the control authorities often focus on the checks, ignoring the preventive measures, says Vice-President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs (RSPP) Alexander Varvarin. It is necessary to move from indicators that characterize the control process, to those who say about the result for society, he said.

“How much have ruined what made”

Rosenfeld calls “the right idea” the emergence of new evaluation criteria of the Supervisory authorities. “The question is how it will be implemented in practice,” he says. This measure will help businesses optimistic bludan. Now the inspectors will be responsible for ensuring the safety requirements have been met: if checks and fines will be a lot of mortality will remain at the same level, it will mean that they do not work, she says. In practice, the auditors will stop coming to the small businesses, I’m sure bloudan: “What are they there to waste time if the risks are minimal?” It is necessary to check a large enterprise where you really can experience accidents, and now the inspectors will have a detailed consider how to reduce such risks to a minimum, he said.

In the list of Ministry is not an item of the material damage caused by the activity of the Supervisory authorities. “Support of Russia” in the summer, during discussion of the draft proposed by the Ministry to introduce such a criterion, bludan says: “I proposed to introduce KPI: how many organizations inspector ruined, and then he realised,” But the initiative was not supported — according to bloudan is motivated, in particular, the fact that such indicators are difficult to track.

Business representatives have repeatedly complained of unjustified inspections — this item is definitely worth to bring in legislation, I’m sure Rosenfeld: the company suffer losses already during the inspections, as employees are distracted by them, and after that enterprises impose additional sanctions. Without such a criterion, the document can be called a palliative, he said.

Let the courts decide

Assess the costs of business carried out in relation to inspection you need, but in the draft of the decree we are talking only about the criteria of effective control, indicates the Varvarin. In the future, you will also need to compare the inspection efficiency and the cost of its implementation. “Was it worth lowering the overall damage of 100 million rubles to be spent on the organization of the control of RUB 200 million?” — asks the expert. The next step, according to Varvarin, — eliminate inefficient controls.

However, the paragraph on costs of the companies from the actions of the Supervisory authorities are in possession of the government about the estimates of the effectiveness of control activities, reminds laskina. In addition, according to her, questions about property damage during inspections must be addressed in court.

While the draft decree is under public discussion. In the current version it should enter into force on 1 January, and the order of evaluation must be developed before August 15, 2017. For example, it is unclear how to assess “harm public morality” arising out of the work of control and surveillance, is now the approved method of calculation for this question do not exist, said Lashkina. An example of the actions of the Supervisory authorities, aimed at addressing the harm of morality, she calls the powers of Roskomnadzor to protect children from harmful information.

The Finance Ministry has proposed to reallocate without discussion 10% of the budget of the security forces



Photo: Ruslan Vakhaev/RIA Novosti

On Thursday the Cabinet will consider amendments, according to which the Ministry of Finance may be entitled without discussion to reallocate 10% of the budget on defense, security and law enforcement, “Vedomosti”

The Ministry of Finance may be entitled to reallocate up to 10% of the cost of money on national defense, security and law enforcement without amending the budget law. This is with reference to the relevant amendments to the Budget code, which was approved by the government Commission on legislative activities, according to “Vedomosti”. According to the newspaper, on Thursday it will consider the Cabinet of Ministers.

Changes to the consolidated budget breakdown (distribution plan expenses and income), according to these amendments, made by order of the Minister of Finance. Redistribution affect mainly recipients of budget for sections “national defense” and “national security and law enforcement”, writes the newspaper with reference to the amendment.

Changes in the painting can not be reduced enshrined in the law of obligations to the people for the sake of increasing other spending or to increase spending on salary — this will require amendments to the budget law.

In the explanatory note to the amendments, the Ministry of Finance notes that budget cuts on national defense and security was accompanied by a reform of the military service and optimizing the number of law enforcement officers, while the objectives remained unchanged, which led to increased burden on them. The reduction in funding was accompanied by growing inflation and changes in the geopolitical situation around Russia. “An additional problem” became “some times” when I reduced the frequency of amending the budget law, emphasizes the Finance Ministry.

According to the representative of the Ministry of Finance, the amendments are necessary to cutting red tape the process of redistribution of budget funds in individual cases.

As said the lead researcher, development center of HSE Andrew Cherniavsky, not as important as the costs are redistributed between these sections, since there is a large closed part which is out of public discussion. According to him, disturb the same amount of spending on defense and security. This year spending on defense and security increased, others reduced, and in fact, military spending is squeezing the other, concludes Cherniavsky.

The Ministry of Finance to increase domestic debt to the highest level since the late 1990s



Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina/RBC

Until the end of the year, the authorities want to give businesses guarantees on loans amounting to almost 1.5 trillion rubles — a record plan. In this case the internal debt will exceed 10% of GDP — the last time it was during the time of the 1998 default

The Ministry of Finance is ready to increase the maximum internal debt in 1997, of vouching for the businesses more than 1 trillion rubles to the end of the year. If the government will issue guarantees to companies in full, as a plan, the debt to GDP ratio could rise by almost 2 percentage points — the most since 1997. The upper limit of internal debt on January 1, 2017 it is proposed to increase from 1 trillion rubles to 9.87 trillion (almost 12% of GDP).

That the authorities want to increase the program of state guarantees this year to 850 billion rubles from 592 billion to 1.44 trillion rubles., became aware of the draft amendments to the budget published by the Finance Ministry this week. If the program is executed, it will be a record amount issued during the year guarantees for the obligations of enterprises. Internal debt of the government in this case, will exceed 10% of GDP for the first time since the late 1990’s, show the RBC calculations made on the basis of the data of the Ministry of Finance. Guarantees are declared to the authorities as an important mechanism to support economic growth, but they are included in the public debt and in the future may result in the expenditure budget.

The warranty for the New year

The government this year has not issued any guarantees, but the Ministry of Finance has decided to increase the plan for their results by 143%. Generally, most guarantees are issued in the last months of the year a — December 31 (last year 48 guarantees were issued in the New year’s eve), follows from the data of the accounting chamber.

A program increase of 850 billion rubles. entirely falls on the category of guarantees for Bank loans and bonds of companies, preparing investment projects (including in the field of energy saving and increase of energy efficiency): increase from 175,3 billion to 1.03 trillion rubles.

Talking about the business, ready to invest in the construction and reconstruction of social, agricultural, municipal and transportation projects continue to operate them, explained earlier, the Ministry of economic development. The state is prepared to vouch for the business in the amount of up to 100% loan, but not more than 50% of the cost of the investment project.

For banks, the state guarantee a first — class guarantee, which should significantly facilitate acquisition of loans for business and to the explanation of economic development. These loans in rubles under the state guarantees can provide Russian banks or the Bank.

The company’s intention to invest in social, agricultural, energy and transport projects, the only borrowers who are willing to help the Ministry of Finance. Of the other nine categories warranty support, including military-industrial complex and defense procurement, the Ministry of Finance has not laid increasing guarantees.



Will be over 10% of GDP

At the end of 2015, the internal debt of Russia amounted to just over 7.3 trillion rubles, or 9% of GDP. The state guarantees accounted for almost 24% of domestic debt, from the data of the Ministry of Finance. The amendments, which still must be approved by the government and the Duma, the Finance Ministry proposed to increase the limit for net borrowing to 500 billion rubles (to the previously planned 300 billion roubles).

The increase in net borrowing and government guarantees means that internal debt can reach of 9.02 trillion rubles, or 10.9% projected by the Ministry of Finance of GDP for 2016, calculated RBC (see chart). The figure obtained on the assumption of 100 percent implementation of the updated plan for the state guarantee, minus the repayment this year of a previously issued guarantees and expected performance guarantees on warranty.

According to the chamber, this year on September 1 the state guarantees are provided, and repayment 56 guarantees amounted to 216,2 billion rubles, the Ministry of Finance withdraws the guarantee from the state internal debt, if expired its term or the recipient of the guarantee fully fulfilled its obligations on the loan or the government has paid the money for the warranty case.

How many guarantees will be repaid for all of 2016, does not say in the budget act, neither the amendments nor in the public documents of the Ministry of Finance. The press service of the Ministry has not responded to a request for state guarantees. Therefore, RBC took the figure of 1 September, but before the end of the year it may increase then the amount of debt will be less. In addition, the Ministry of Finance expects that the state will have to pay around 11 billion rubles for warranty cases (respectively, these guarantees also will be charged with the debt).

It should also be noted that the plan for issuing government guarantees should never be performed on 100%. So, in 2015, has been guaranteed to 208 billion RUB (only 37% of the plan), in 2014 — 533 bn (77%). The average for the last five years, the execution of the program of state guarantees amounted to 60%, follows from data of the accounting chamber. In addition, the state guarantees — a debt which with a small probability becomes a real expense. Last year of warranty cases did not exist, and this year the Ministry of Finance reserves under payment of only 10.8 billion rubles Guarantees that the government will issue this year, can be exercised no earlier than 2018, according to the law on the budget.

“Ghosts of the nineties”

Although Russia is very low by world standards, the level of debt to GDP, “the ghosts of the nineties” continue to haunt the Ministry of Finance, judging by the statements of officials. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly said that government borrowings in the current budget involve a risk of unwinding the debt spiral.

In June, he said in an interview with RBCthat the larger borrowing of the government, banks, buyers OFZ could force the Finance Ministry to place the shorter paper, the risk is to slide into the GKO pyramid — symbol of the default of 1998.

Then, the internal debt to GDP was relatively small 20%, but the government was insolvent. Now the debt in Russia is expensive (the cost of borrowing greater than 8%), and the situation could spiral out of control and with small volumes of debt — “quite a few years to increase lending to $ 1 trillion, 1.5 trillion, 2 trillion, and investor confidence will definitely change,” said RBC official financial-economic bloc of the government.

Debt, which allows the Ministry of Finance by the end of 2016, is a relatively small, says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. But worried by the fact that in relation to GDP it will increase, while the economy is not growing — this is the difference of Russia from other countries, such as India, where public debt is growing in nominal terms, but is growing and GDP. Russia will have to increase debt service costs — so the “snowball”, he adds.

However, the risk of sliding into “the GKO pyramid” not now, says Poryvai. But in the long-term dynamics of the capacity even at 1.5% of GDP per year could lead to such a situation. Universal “dangerous” values on the public debt no, but bad if interest in his service is above nominal GDP growth. For Russia a “dangerous” level of debt — over 50% of GDP, says Poryvai (now taking into account the external debt of Russia is around 14%). This is not the critical level, but it investors will experience discomfort, says the analyst.