More than 120 thousand Bank employees lost their jobs during the crisis



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In crisis 2.5 years the number of employees of large and medium banks declined by almost 120 thousand people. Some laid-off settled for a lower position, others had to change the scope of activities, experts of personnel agencies

According to Rosstat, RBC analyzed, the number of employees of large and medium-sized banks in the first half amounted to 717 thousand, down compared to the 2015, 52 thousand, “While the average annual figure for 2015 was more than 769 thousand people, whereas in 2014 it was equal to 835 thousand”, — told RBC Deputy head of the Federal service of state statistics Constantine Likes.

Thus, in 2.5 years of large and medium-sized banks were fired about 120 thousand people, or about 15% of Bank employees. For comparison, the total number of employed in the country in June 2016, according to Rosstat, amounted to more than 72,67 million people, nearly 1.14 million people (or 1.6%) more compared with the average value 2014. Thus, due to layoffs in the banking sector has lost jobs every 640 th the working people.

The number of employed in financial activities and real estate in June 2016, compared to January 2015 fell by almost 2.6%. At the same time, for example, the number of people employed in the production of electricity and gas decreased by 13.5% (from 2.47 million to 2.14 million persons) and in agriculture has increased by 17.1% from 4.49 million to 5.26 million people.

Banks less

Experts believe that Rosstat statistics correlated with the overall reduction in the number of credit institutions in the Russian Federation and decrease of credit activity of the population. “Part 15-percent reduction of Bank employees is due to closure of banks. Equally it is dictated by the decline in retail business of banks in General. The Russian population was significantly leveraged in those years, there were people who had multiple loans. Many banks, which were not even threatened with the revocation of the license, has reduced its activity in the retail business and, accordingly, closed offices,” says analyst BCS Olga Naydenova.

In addition, according to her, the reduction in the number of Bank employees contributed to the transition calculations on remote channels. “This is a very significantly reduces the load on operators and the need for offices. Even in terms of growth in retail, we will likely see a further reduction in the number of branches,” — said Naidenov.

According to the Bank, if at the end of 2014 in Russia there were nearly 42 thousand structural subdivisions of banks, as of 1 September 2016, they left about 35 thousand That is has been reduced more than 7 thousand branches.

“Statistics of Rosstat reflects rather the optimisation of existing banks related to the closure of branches and offices, reduction of excess staff due to the narrowing of business, agrees the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. — The reduction in the number of banks has contributed to the reduction in Bank employees”.

According to ASV, in 2014 and the first half of 2016 was eliminated 179 banking organizations, 31 of which Bank for the first half of 2016. For 2014-2015 28 completed takedowns. In addition, sanitation was subjected to 32 organizations (two banks in the first half of 2016). “According to the report of ASV, as a result of the liquidations of the banks in 2014 it was dismissed 14.5 thousand employees, in 2015 — 18 thousand,” said Poryvai.

According to the National Bureau of credit histories, most of all, banks have reduced activity in the area of retail loans in 2015. If January 1, 2015, a credit institution issued to the population of retail loans in the amount of 10.94 trillion rubles on 1 January 2016, this figure fell to 10.35 trillion, and on 1 July to 10.31 trillion rubles Especially reduced unsecured loan (from 1 January 2015 to 1 July 2016 to 19.6%) and car loans (5.2 percent).

The growth of “market candidates”

Experts of personnel agencies believe that the figure fired during this period, Bank employees could be more. “The decline definitely occurred, and, in my opinion, it was more significant than according to Rosstat. The greatest reduction took place in large cities such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg,” — said General Director of ProfiStaff Irina Nikulina.

According to the company HeadHunter, the number of vacancies in the banking sector in Moscow in 2015, compared to 2014 decreased by 15%. In the whole labor market of Moscow, the reduction of vacancies did not exceed 13% and in Russia as a whole reached 7%.

“In recent years increased dramatically “candidates ‘ market” in the banking sector. Among the reasons — the withdrawals, reduced activity of foreign banks”, — said General Director of the Recruitment boutique S. M. Art by Anastasia Glebova.

At the same time, serious difficulties were faced by employees of banks, whose licenses were revoked, the Central Bank, experts say recruitment agencies. “To find job candidates from banks with revoked licenses is much more difficult, especially if we talk about the employees compliance, internal audit, employees responsible for countering the legalization (laundering) of incomes obtained in a criminal way, and terrorism financing, key accounting staff and risks. And once in the black list of the Central Bank, to find a job then a degree is almost not possible,” said Glebova.

Similar situation with candidates from the black list of the Central Bank and personnel Agency “yuniti”. “People who have retired from banks with a suspended license and took up the post as agreed, the Central Bank can not get same position, they need to restore the reputation. Candidates who wish to continue working in the banking sector are on the decline, and it is more difficult to find work”, — said the head of group of selection of personnel Agency “yuniti” Stanislav Zlobin.

Nikulina from ProfiStaff reminded that in accordance with the requirements of the Bank of Russia when applying for a job in credit institutions senior and middle managers is the qualification and business reputation of candidates. Thus, the revocation of the Bank can be an obstacle to future employment candidates in the banking sector.

According to her, the tension in the labor market in the banking sector persists and now. “There is a tendency to toughening of requirements of employers from the banking sector to the candidates who worked in liquidated banks and less important positions. For example, a very carefully select the candidates in the internal control and risk management, as well as in the direction of IT and especially information security. While the line staff is not affected,” — said Nikulin.

New horizons

Most of the dismissed Bank employees managed to find jobs, but often not the profile, experts say. “Some employees were forced to change the scope, some moved to less responsible positions. The higher the position occupied by the applicant, the more time it took or takes up the job search,” — said Nikulin.

According to Zlobin, the easiest to retrain people selling banking products to corporate clients. From such candidates a universal experience that are in demand all financial institutions.

Experts see the largest number of candidates in the search in the corporate units of banks among professionals in the attraction and work with clients, as well as in retail sales, network development, product development, adds CEO Recruitment boutique S. M. Art by Anastasia Glebova.

Collectors complained about the delay in the preparation of the regulations on the protection of the debtors



The office of the collection Agency

Photo: Grigory Sobchenko/Kommersant

Collectors have written to first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov with a letter asking to expedite the preparation of market regulation, which should begin on 1 January. Otherwise, the protection of debtors will not be guaranteed, they warn

National collectors Association (NAPCA) has sent a letter to the government (at the disposal of RBC) with a request to expedite the appointment of the regulator of the market and the preparation of regulations, without which it accepted 230-FZ on protection of rights of individuals when collecting debts can not earn from 1 January 2017. A letter addressed to the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

230-FZ, signed by President Vladimir Putin July 3, 2016, provides that from 1 January 2017 all collection agencies should enter into the state register. This date must be approved by the state Agency that would be responsible for maintenance of the register and oversight of market foreclosure, and developed seven regulations without which the law cannot work, writes NAPCA. Among these acts — the regulation of any debt collection agencies in the register, the order of execution of control and supervision, the form of withdrawal from interaction with the claimant, the software requirements of the collecting agencies, form and timing of reporting to the regulator, noted in a letter to Shuvalov.

In this three-month period (counted from 3 July) the adoption of the government resolution, which was to create the state body leading the register of collectors, has expired, stated in the NAPCA. The Agency had until the new year to develop missing regulations. “Given that until January 1, 2017, has less than three months, this can lead to unwillingness of the authorities to the regulation of market foreclosure and the implementation of commitments to protect the rights of citizens upon return of the overdue debt”, — stated in a letter to NAPCA.

“In delaying the adoption of necessary normative acts for the normal operation of 230-FZ I malice or conspiracy theory can’t see. Rather, it is simply a bureaucratic snafu,” said RBC President NAPCA, Alexey Savatyugin. According to him, to rectify the situation, but for this need maximum a week to issue a government decree on the Ombudsman to monitor collectors government Agency. “Although on who will do it, you know. The market regulator should act the Ministry of justice, the Federal bailiff service (FSSP) is the Supervisory authority register of collectors,” says Savatyugin. These agencies, in theory, was supposed to create the necessary draft orders and regulations, he added. If until the end of October they will all be published, then the normal operation of the law on sewers is still possible counts Savatyugin.

Preparation of the regulatory framework 230-FZ is not completed, the work requires significant time, said to RBC the President of the collection Agency “Sequoia Credit consolidation” Elena Dokuchaeva. “The cost of failure is large enough: we can talk about the fate of the industry and prosperity of the financial market. Also remains the question of the regulator,” she said. According to Dokuchaeva, in this regard, it would be logical to postpone the date the law enters into force at a later date.

If the entry into force of 230-FZ will not be postponed, 100% collection market will be outlawed, because its requirements in full go on all claimants continues Savatyugin. However, he said that the market leader in a number of positions to which the work of the law is ready. “Debtors in case of postponement the formal protection of the law guaranteed will not” — he admits.

According to Savatyugin, even if 230-FZ will enter into force in time, he greatly thinned the market of debt claimants. According to him, Russia now operates from 600 to 900 professional collection agencies. To fulfill all the requirements of the new law will be able to a maximum of 100 to 150 of them, predicts Savatyugin.

The representative of the Secretariat Igor Shuvalov told RBC that the letter NAPCA to them did not arrive yet.

The draft resolution on definition of the authorized body that regulates the activities of collectors, submitted to the government, told RBC assistant to the Minister of economic development Elena laskina. Information about the possible postponement of the entry into force of the law on sewers in an official capacity in the office has not yet been reported, she said. He 230-FZ will protect the rights and legitimate interests of borrowers, to make a positive impact on the relationship of borrowers and creditors, she said.

Public attention to activities of collection agencies has intensified in early 2016 after Ulyanovsk the manifold burned the house of the debtor, with the result that injured two people, including a child (collector was sentenced to eight years in a General regime colony). After this, the deputies stepped up the drafting of a law to restrict the activities of the claimants. The head of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko said in February that the new law will clear the market from collectors who abused their rights.

As a result 230-FZ restricts collection activity: in particular, professional debt claimants will not be able to disturb the debtors with phone calls more than once a day and often two times a week, and the calls themselves must not be provided at night (from 22 to 8 hours). Personal meetings between the collector and the debtor should not be held more than once a week. The law also prohibits collectors to hide the phone number from which they call the debtor, the same requirement applies to the e-mail address. The documents and recordings proving the communication of collectors with debtors, should be kept three years.

According to the Bank of Russia, by 1 August 2016 of overdue debts of individuals to banks amounted to 911,46 billion rubles In mid-September, the NCB reported that overdue debt more than 90 days and above 500 thousand rubles (for all types of retail loans) had almost a thousand 622 people.

The cost of Brent crude rose above $52 for the first time in four months



Photo: Eric Gay/AP

During today’s trading, a barrel of Brent crude oil rose more than 2%. Its price climbs above $52/bbl. for the first time since the beginning of June. Growth of oil contributed to the report US Department of energy on supply concerns

The cost of futures for oil of mark Brent with delivery in December 2016 for the first time since June 10, 2016 rose above $52 a barrel. The maximum cost of a barrel reached $52,1, which is 2.4% above the closing level of the previous trading session.

The rise in oil prices has accelerated after the publication of the US Department of energy data on the decline in volume of commercial oil reserves in the country. According to authorities, over the last week, inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels (of 504.6 million to 502,7 million), remaining, nevertheless, higher for fall level.

According to experts Commerzbank, the main reason for the reduction of oil reserves in the United States was the reduction of oil imports, and do not fall in US crude oil continues to put pressure on the world market.

The rise in oil prices contributed to the strengthening of the ruble. During currency trading on the Moscow exchange, the dollar declined today to 62,2925 Euro — 69,79 to RUB.

“Increasing the price of oil is the main reason that over the past week among the currencies of developing countries, only the ruble managed to strengthen against the dollar. The ruble is significantly ahead in terms of the currencies of developing countries through higher oil prices and sales of foreign currency by the corporate sector. The pair dollar/ruble might stay around 62,50, while other emerging-market currencies retreat against the dollar”, — stated in the report of analysts of Sberbank CIB.

To 18:05 MSK cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was $51,98, the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange reached 62,46 Euro — 69,965 RUB.

Mikail Shishkhanov will combine their financial assets



The Head Of Binbank Mikhail Shishkhanov

Photo: Alexander Utkin for RBC

The Gutseriev family-shishkhanova reforming its financial business. On the basis of them belonging to the leasing company Europlan, will create a financial holding company, which will include insurance and pension assets

Financial group Safmar (previously Group BIN), manages the assets of the family Gutseriev-Shishanov, began the process of combining their non-financial assets on the basis of the company “Europlan” said RBC shareholder Safmar and the head of Binbank Mikhail Shishkhanov. According to him, the combined company will include three main areas: pension business, leasing and insurance. The banking group of the Bank in the perimeter of the transaction will not be included.

“We plan to pay for technical issue to Deposit in PJSC “evroplan” owned by us shares of TSC, as well as 100% stake in NPF “Safmar”. As a result, we plan to create a public company with a market capitalization of over 60 billion rubles. and not rated below BB-. Similar financial structures in the Russian market there,” — said Shishkhanov in an interview with RBC.

Leasing company “Europlan” was established in 1999. In July 2015 it was purchased by structures of Mikhail Shishkhanov and Mikhail Gutseriev funds Baring Vostok and Capital International. After the IPO in December 2015, 51% of the shares controls Еuroplan Holdings Ltd (Cyprus), which beneficiary is the Shishkhanov. According to SPARK, to 15.5% of the shares of the leasing company controlling the Group’s funds BIN: NPF Doverie, NPF “European pension Fund”.

VSK insurance company belongs to Sergey Tsikalyuk (51%), 45% of the company’s shares in may 2016 purchased FG Safmar, paying for the transaction by assets of IC “BIN Insurance”. According to shishkhanova, Safmar is the option to purchase another 4% of shares in VSC.

NPF Safmar created by merging the four funds: NPF “Safmar”, NPF “European pension Fund” NPF regionfond NPF and the “Education and science”. The amount of pension assets under management of the Fund Safmar is 185.6 bn RUB, including 177,3 billion rubles of pension savings.

He did not rule out that for increasing the capitalization of the company “Europlan” can spend additional placing of shares on the Moscow stock exchange until the end of 2016. However, after additional placement of shares of “Evroplan” group “Safmar” will remain its majority shareholder, he said.

“We hope to complete the main part of the deal before the new year. The event was organized by “VTB Capital”, — said Shishkhanov.

The Central Bank revoked the license of the Bank of top-150



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The Bank of Russia revoked the license of Moscow Aymanibank, ranking among the 150 Russian banks. In mid-October, the Bank’s shareholders were going to consider its elimination, but the regulator decided to revoke the license in connection with the loss of the capital

The Bank of Russia on October 5 revoked the license for banking operations of the Moscow Imagebank, reported Wednesday on the website of the regulator.

Financial institution, the adequacy of own funds was below 2%, and own capital was below the minimum share capital, said the Central Bank. According to the regulator, Aymanibank placed money in assets of poor quality and inadequately assessed in connection with these risks. Dosoznanie reserves in the necessary amount has led to total loss of the capital, said the Central Bank.

The Bank appointed a temporary administration until the appointment of a bankruptcy Trustee or liquidator. The powers of the Executive bodies of the Bank suspended.

Aymanibank — the participant of system of insurance of contributions. As reported by the Agency on insurance of contributions (ASV), payments to depositors will begin no later than October 19.

As of 1 September 2016, Aymanibank took the 150-th place in the Russian banking system by total assets. The Bank has specialized in providing natural persons deposits and issuing loans. Main source of funding was the means of individuals — 80% (21.8 billion rubles), funds of enterprises accounted for 2.1 percent (580 million roubles).

Aymanibank was under the control of the shareholders of Finprombank. This credit took the 95-th place among Russian banks in terms of assets. The number of minority Finprombank with a share of 8.4% consisted of businessman Musa Bazhaev, whose fortune Forbes estimates at $0.5 billion Bazhayev supported the Bank with money: from December 2015 to February 2016 he invested in the capital of the Bank is 6.5 billion rubles., in early June, added another 5.8 billion rubles, wrote “Vedomosti”. The edition with reference to one of the contractors Finprombank reported that Bazhaev was preparing to sanitize the pot, as his structures were placed in it heavily.

In mid-September, the shareholders of Finprombank thinking about how to ask the Bank to cancel or revoke the license of the Bank. The vote on this issue was scheduled for October 14, but on the 19th of September, the Central Bank deprived of the license Finprombank due to the inability of the Bank to satisfy the claims of creditors.

On the same day Aymanibank ceased to accept deposits. In the call center of the Bank is explained in the technical upgrade of the system. On September 21 it became known that shareholders expect Imagebank to consider its elimination. In materials of the credit organization explained that the extraordinary meeting will be held October 19. On 22 September, the Central Bank turned off Aymanibank from its payment system.

Monday, 3 October, the Central Bank announced about the changes in the Supervisory unit. On October 17, banking regulation and supervision will be engaged by the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin. Still he was responsible for monetary policy, but on October 17 they will be transferred to the jurisdiction of the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. The first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Simanovsky will move to the post of adviser to Nabiullina, and Deputy Chairman Mikhail Sukhov will leave the Bank of Russia.

Put it over the threshold: what does the relaxation of exchange controls for businesses



Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

The collapse of the ruble

More than 120 thousand Bank employees lost their jobs during the crisis
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Vladimir Putin promised to ease the rules of foreign currency control. We are talking about raising the threshold of foreign trade in $50 thousand to $100 thousand How will it affect entrepreneurs?

The consent of the President to double the threshold for currency transactions became known yesterday at a meeting with businessmen in the Orenburg region. The proposal was made by one of the participants, it was supported by the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. “We will take a decision, but first you need colleagues to work”, — said Putin.

Offer Orenburg businessman was to raise the threshold of foreign exchange transactions that are not tracked by the state, from the current $50 thousand to $100 thousand

“Formally this initiative, the Ministry has not yet received,” — said RBC assistant Minister of economic development Elena laskina. Earlier the speaker spoke about the need to apply serious effort with financial and non-financial support for exports. “We need to work with exporters in the country, to support them financially. There is still work to do”, — he noted.

According to the law on currency control of the Central Bank is entitled to demand certification of transactions between companies, entrepreneurs and individuals in private practice. Under the terms of the Bank of Russia’s instructions, the resident must provide the necessary documents and information (the transaction certificate) for all foreign trade contracts where the settlement amount is equal to or exceeds $50 thousand. These requirements relate to economic agents (exporters, importers), organizations providing services to foreign counterparties or receive them from such services.

In June, the Central Bank has posted for public discussion a draft law, according to which the threshold required for registration of passports of transactions, on the contrary, decreases from $50 thousand to $25 thousand in addition, the rule of certification by the idea of the Central Bank should extend more and individuals offering foreign currency loans to non-residents.

What is the passport of the transaction

The transaction passport is issued by the Russian side foreign trade transactions in the Bank through which the planned payments to non-residents. “The passport identifies virtually all of the major terms of the contract”, — says the managing partner of Bureau “Business fairway” Roman Terekhin. In addition to passports, the resident must provide a certificate of currency operations, as well as a certificate on supporting documents. The latter refers to invoices, invoices for the goods, customs Declaration, etc. In the absence of the passport of the transaction is subject to administrative liability under part 6 of article 15.25 KoAP of the Russian Federation: individuals will be charged a fine of 2-3 thousand rubles., on officials — 4-5 thousand rubles, legal entities — 40-50 thousand.

“But even if you do not want the transaction passport, resident still provides the Bank with a certificate of currency transactions and a statement of the supporting documents. So the exchange control is still, although the workflow easier,” adds Terekhin.

He believes that raising the threshold for foreign exchange transactions up to $100 million is unlikely to seriously facilitate the activities of exporters-importers. Basically, this measure will reduce the time of calculations. Independent financial Advisor novel Tomkiw has a different opinion: raising the threshold for foreign currency transactions will positively affect overall efficiency of Russian small business, which will intensify foreign trade operations.

In most developed countries restrictions on foreign exchange transactions do not exist, can not be said about countries such as, for example, Venezuela, where due to economic crisis, says Tomkiw. “Russia’s monetary threshold looks increasingly like a relic of the past,” he adds.

Teryokhin said that exchange control and its weakening is not the only problem the participants of foreign economic activity. “There are still certification of compliance of goods with requirements of the EurAsEC, obtaining export licenses, various permits sanitary supervision, obtaining of certificates of registration of medical preparations or equipment,” — he enumerates.

According to the head of group legal, KPMG in Russia and the CIS Irina Narysheva, business cares only about the policy of the state to combat capital flight from Russia and possible sanctions for violation of the rules of remittances. “Therefore, the increase in the limit on operations with no passports of transactions they will not solve the problem,” she said. Moreover, on the background of the national policy to combat the withdrawal of capital abroad, a high probability of further tightening of foreign exchange control, does not exclude Narysheva.

Lukashenko spoke about the negotiations on oil supplies from Iran



President Of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko

Photo: Komsomolskaya Pravda/Russian Look

Belarus is negotiating with Iran over oil shipments, said President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Belarusian refineries need to provide oil “to the eyeballs”, and Iran is ready to reduce prices, said Lukashenko

The Belarusian authorities are in talks on supply of Iranian oil, he said, speaking before members of both chambers of the National Assembly, the President of the country Alexander Lukashenko.

“We are negotiating with Iran, which is desperately finding a market for oil and willing to reduce the price”, — Lukashenka said (quoted by “Interfax”).

The President also recalled the recent reduction in oil supplies from Russia and said that the refineries of Belarus — “companies that don’t provide the eyeballs in Neft”.

In early 2016, it was reported that this year Russia will supply Belarus with 23 million tons of oil. However, in the third quarter of this year, Russia has cut oil supplies to Belarus from 5.3 to 3.5 million tons. Minister of energy Alexander Novak and Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich explained that the decline in supply is due to a conflict over arrears of Belarus for Russian gas.

Later, Lukashenko accused the Russian authorities of pressure on Belarus and the unwillingness to compromise in the negotiations.

“We are fiddling with for several months can not agree on the price of gas. In this regard, Russia has reduced oil supplies to Belarus. We perceive this as pressure on Belarus, but the pressure I will not tolerate, and also the Belarusians,” — said the President of Belarus.

The issue of procurement with Belarus Iranian oil rose in previous years. So, in 2010, Iranian Ambassador to Minsk Seyyed Abdollah Hosseini said that Iran does not interfere in trade disputes with Russia and Belarus, but is willing to help the last of the oil, if Minsk will be asked.

“If the Belarusian side asks for, we’ll help,” said the diplomat, commenting on the possibility of supplying Iranian oil to Belarus.

Earlier Belarusian authorities were trying to negotiate with Tehran on oil production directly in Iran. At the end of 2006 for consideration by Iranian authorities were transferred to the General plan of development of the Iranian oil field Jofeyr, and in may 2007 during a visit to Minsk by the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Lukashenko said that the agreement was reached and that soon the Belarusians will be able to produce in Iran the oil, Refine it there or take crude oil and sell in any region of the world

“You went to meet all the wishes of the Belarusian side and gave us the Deposit that we had hoped for. Our experts researched and prepared today to extract oil on Iranian territory,” — said Lukashenko, addressing the President of Iran.

However, before the actual extraction of oil Belarusians in Iran never reached, in 2013 the project of development of the field Jofeyr has been closed. Currently, the website of the state company “Belorusneft” Iran is not only not mentioned in the list of her international projects, but in the section “future projects”.

Economists had predicted to preserve Russia “junk” rating for another year



Photo: Oleg Yakovlev/RBC

In the coming year, the sovereign credit rating of Russia will not move with the “junk” level, which rated him on a scale of Moody’s and s&P, according to most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg

The Agency Bloomberg interviewed 17 analysts, of which 12 expressed confidence that the three largest world rating agencies (Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s) in the next 12 months will not improve Russia’s credit rating. The Russian sovereign rating on a scale of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s is non-investment or “junk” level, while Fitch puts rating on the lower tier of investment grade.

Two of the respondents to Bloomberg analysts believe that in the coming year we can expect the increase in the rating of Russia by Moody’s and S&P, and one expert expects rating upgrade from Fitch. One Respondent, in contrast, predicts Fitch ratings in 2017 and will lower the rating of Russia to “junk.”

The last time the credit rating of Russia increased in July 2008 by Moody’s, says Bloomberg. In mid-September, the S&P improved its Outlook on the credit rating of Russia from “negative” to “stable”, which was the first positive decision of the rating agencies in respect of Russia for six years. The Agency maintained the sovereign rating at the same level where the credit ratings of Bulgaria and Indonesia, BB+. The head of the Russian Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov in this regard, said that the Agency’s decision reflects “the objective process of completing the adaptation of Russian economy to changing external conditions”.

As said Bloomberg analyst at Raiffeisen Bank International Andreas Schwabe, Russia will be able to cope with the difficulties in the implementation of the budget until 2018, when the presidential elections. At the same time, the economist noted that the probability of a downgrade by Moody’s, and Fitch remains, however, the markets will barely react.

Fitch in its rating commentary notedthat the fate of Russia’s rating will depend to a greater extent on domestic fiscal policy. Deviation from the stated macroeconomic and fiscal targets, as warned by the Agency, can play for the country a negative role.

In late September, Siluanov said about a possible increase in 2017 limit external borrowing to $7 billion and increased domestic borrowing to more than 1 trillion rubles, the Finance Minister also said that the budget deficit in 2016 will be 3.5–3.7% (instead of previously forecast of 3.3%).

Moody’s and s&P held Russia’s rating to non-investment level since January 2015. In late September, senior Director of sovereign ratings S&P Christian Esters in an interview to Bloomberg saidthat it may take three years before the rating will be raised.

The Ministry of Finance has proposed to introduce a new fiscal rule



Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov

Photo: Maxim Shemetov/TASS

The Finance Ministry plans to introduce a new fiscal rule, which will allow to limit costs and to build reserves. From 2020, the rule will determine the approaches as to expenses and debt

The main fiscal rule, proposed by the Ministry of Finance in the draft budget policy guidelines submitted to the government for discussion, the rule will work in 2020 and will be based on the base oil price of $40 per barrel. His choice of the Ministry of Finance explains that the assessment of long-term oil prices change, and the rest of the country the reserves are small. About this “Vedomosti” acquainted with the text of the document.

On the basis of the price of oil will be calculated and the base rate of the ruble to the budget. Marginal costs will be calculated according to the rule: the basic income plus the cost of servicing the debt. Received on top of this amount will be allocated to reserves.

To bring costs to the necessary level will not immediately, so long as the deficit will decline from 3% to the target level of 1.2%, the Finance Ministry proposes to use the transitional variant of the budget rules.

It lies in the fact that the marginal costs of the budget should be determined as the sum of oil and gas (5.5% of GDP when the price of oil to $40 per barrel) non-oil and gas (about 9.6% of GDP) revenue, decreasing the deficit, spending on the recapitalization of the web and interest expense on the debt. The Finance Ministry said that additional revenues should be directed into the reserve, since their spending will lead to the fact that the Central Bank will keep rates high.

Since 2020, the budget rule must determine the approach not only to costs but also to debt. The Finance Ministry proposes to limit the borrowing and use of reserves by means of two “keys”. The first is the size of the debt service costs should not exceed 0.8-1% of GDP per year; second — in case of need in loans because of a shortage non-oil revenues or the lack of sources of financing of the budget additional loans shall not exceed the shortfall of non-oil revenues.

About the Finance Ministry’s proposal to introduce a new fiscal rule “Vedomosti” wrote in February. Then the Deputy head of Department Maxim Oreshkin called this as “the only effective way to isolate the volatility of the real exchange rate from the fluctuations in oil prices”.

However, when submitted to the government the project of the Ministry of Finance stated that the measures to reduce costs can be volatile, if not broad public support. International experience shows that to find a consensus in terms of reducing social spending possible, but as pointed out by the Ministry of Finance, this requires a new social contract.

The experts saw the risk of leaving the Russians in a shadow because of mistrust to the government



Photo: Lori

Because of the uncertainty in the social guarantees offered to citizens, the state, the Russian workers move into the informal sector, experts say Ranepa

The Russians focus on work in the formal sector if it increases their social security, however, almost three quarters of residents think it is low, according to a study of the Center for socio-political monitoring of the Ranepa, which is at the RBC. In these circumstances, the citizens working officially, you can start to move into the informal sector, told RBC Director of the center Andrey Departing.

The government does not protect citizens from the economic turmoil at the required level, it is “is one of the main prerequisites for the spread of “shadow” employment,” the study says. The authors conducted a survey which showed that 74.2% of Russian employees consider their level of protection low (however, it is better than in 2009, when the weak protection said 80.8% of the respondents). In total the survey participated 1.6 thousand people in 35 regions.

Now, as shown by the survey data, Russians are not as big a role social guarantees. However, as analysts write, in times of uncertainty they can not be observed, and can cause “social discontent” and a waiver of official work. The connection between white wages and a decent pension population does not feel, according to the study. Next year ‘s pension freeze for the fourth time in a row, pensions to working pensioners will not be indexed from 2016 and non-working pensioners this year pensions were indexed not in full. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank in late September introduced a new pension system that will free employers from mandatory contributions to the funded part of pension, instead, citizens will be expected to remit part of their earnings in their chosen pension Fund. However, against the innovations made by the social block of the government: in charge of his Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets believes that this scheme will not work effectively.

Just informal labor market in Russia includes about 30 million people (40.3% of the economically active population), wrote to the Departing in its June survey (.pdf). Completely out of the formal segment, according to his calculations, eliminated 8.7 million people (11.7 per cent), the others “either have not properly executed additional work (at least a few times a year), or get some part of the wages informally, bypassing”. Most often in the informal sector, as noted by the Departing work men under 24 or older than 60 years with secondary education and low incomes.

Attention to these figures drew President Vladimir Putin, reported Bloomberg , citing two of the participants of the meeting on economic policy held in the Kremlin last summer. Putin said that people are forced into a shadow tax and Supervisory authorities, and instructed the participants to find a way to move business out of the shadows. The press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov did not comment on this information.

According Ranepa, with the fact that the official salary, “the guarantee of a decent retirement”, I agree, 52.4% of respondents, 34.9% of mind. While 75.7% of respondents believe that there is no need to rely on the state to ensure a comfortable retirement, it is better to achieve on their own (14.1 per cent hold the opposite point of view). More inclined to rely on their own strength employers and self-employed Russians, similar view is shared by the representatives of the informal sector.

Despite “advertising” the fact that the official salary means a dignified old age, many people find it hard to understand what will happen in five to ten years, says Departing. Because of this, for example, a person arranged officially, can afford additional employment, which will not be legally binding.

People are moving into the shadow, but this is unlikely to happen because of the low social protection, argues the Director of the Centre for labour market studies Higher school of Economics (HSE) Vladimir Gimpelson. “What in the informal sector, higher social protection?” the expert says, and indicates that wages in it are lower by about 20%. The main reason for shadowing, according to Gimpel’son, — lack of other options of livelihood, when formal employment is reduced.

On the eve measures for the withdrawal of the Russians from the shadows suggested the Ministry of Finance. In the draft guidelines for tax policy for the next three years, which was developed by the Agency, it is proposed to give citizens the opportunity to voluntarily report on employment in the informal sector. In return, they are not allowed to pay income tax until 31 December 2018. Offer applies only to individuals who provide services (cleaning, housekeeping, tutoring, supervision and care of children, sick and elderly) to other individuals and thus are not individual entrepreneurs.