U.S. elections have increased the risk of new sanctions against Russia

The transition of control of the U.S. house of representatives to the Democratic party increases the likelihood of increased sanctions against Russia. But the ruble is rising moderately due to the removal of uncertainty

Photo: Mike Blake / Reuters

Preliminary results of the midterm elections in the U.S. Congress showed that Democrats, for the first time in eight years, will get control of the house of representatives, while the Republicans will strengthen the majority in the Senate. This means that the President is Donald trump loses the benefit of a single Republican Parliament, which he used in the previous two years. For the next two years Congress is becoming “divided”, which usually entails blocking many initiatives.

The redistribution of forces in Congress “threatens to increase sanctions against Russia,” wrote analysts at BCS Global Markets daily review. Agree experts interviewed by RBC. The new status quo most likely means strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia, as well as the General pressure on the administration to trump the Russian question, says a former senior Advisor to OFAC (a division of the US Treasury Department responsible for sanctions), expert at the Atlantic Council Brian O’toole.

HSE economists have predicted the growth of social inequality in Russia

In 2017, Russia recorded the lowest level of social inequality over the last 12 years, but now it began to grow again due to the acceleration of inflation and deceleration of wage growth, said economists HSE

Photo: Alex Maligawa / RIA Novosti

In 2017, Russia recorded the lowest inflation in post-Soviet history — it was 2.5%. The low growth of prices was accompanied by lower inflation for the poor, ceteris paribus contributes to the growth of consumption by the poorer groups of the population and, as a consequence, the reduction of social inequalities, says Deputy Director of the Institute “development Center” HSE Svetlana Misikhina in the new review, “Comments on the state and business”.

In 2016, the inflation for the richest population in Russia higher than for the poor, it is noticeable and for the period from January to September 2018, said Misikhina. The economist considered as “inflation for poor” the minimum subsistence level. In the first nine months of the current year growth of consumer prices for the poor amounted to 1.2% compared to the same period in 2017, while average consumer price index was estimated at the level of 2.53%

In 2017 Russia reached a minimum level of social inequality since 2006, follows from preliminary data of Rosstat. The Gini coefficient (the most common indicator of stratification in society) at the end of last year amounted to 0,410 — below this level the index fell only at the end of 2005 (0,409). The Gini coefficient takes values from zero in the case of absolute equality to unity in the case of absolute inequality.

The Ministry reported a shortage in the regions of fuel for the winter

The lowest stocks, according to the head of Department, came to the Tver region, which, according to the presented data, provided himself for the winter coal is only 38%, and fuel oil — 5.1%

Photo: Konstantin Lemeshev / TASS

During the selector meeting on preparation for the heating season, Minister of construction and housing and communal services Vladimir Yakushev stated that the performance of some Russian regions on fuel stocks for the winter period below the standard, reports TASS.

“Today, in several regions the figures for coal and oil somewhat alarming,” — said the head of Department.

He noted that, if the focus provided by the regions to the center numbers, Karelia brought only 49.6% of coal from the planned volumes. Crimea supplied with coal for 72.9% of the standard, and the oil — 82%.

Medvedev announced plans to double trade with China

Russia and China must strive to increase turnover in two times, said Dmitry Medvedev. Soon it reaches $100 billion

Dmitry Medvedev (center) and Premier of the State Council of China Li Keqiang (left)

(Photo: Yekaterina Shtukina / RIA Novosti)

Russia and China needs to increase the turnover twice, said Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev during his visit to China. “Indeed, our trade [with China] is growing. And, in all likelihood, we for the first time in the history of Russian-Chinese relations will overcome the mark of $100 billion trade turnover,” he said during an extended meeting of the Russian and Chinese governments in Beijing, the correspondent of RBC.

In 2017, the trade turnover between Russia and China, according to the Federal customs service, was $87 billion, in particular export — $38.9 billion and imports of $48 billion.

According to Medvedev, “this is not a final, it’s not the result we must now focus on how the final”. “We are able to increase the turnover significantly, and this is the goal. Can talk […] about doubling turnover. China remains Russia’s main trade partner,” Medvedev said.

Iranian authorities have expressed heavy months for oil buyers

According to the Minister of oil of Iran oil buyers are waiting for a difficult period because of U.S. sanctions imposed against Tehran. The conclusion of the eight countries under restrictions will not help to resolve the situation, said the official

Photo: Stanislav Krasilnikov / TASS

The Minister of oil of Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh believes that the coming months will be for buyers of oil to a quite “heavy”. This opinion he expressed in an interview with the Agency Shana explained that this is due to anti-Iranian sanctions of Washington.

“Despite the battle cries of [President Donald] trump and a number of regional oil producers, the U.S. government eventually recognized the acute shortage of oil on the world market and the impossibility of withdrawal of Iran from this market,” said Zanganeh.

The agreement is not a hindrance: why gasoline has risen in price on the stock exchange

Contrary to the agreements of the oil companies with the government on October 31, the price of gasoline and diesel at the St. Petersburg stock exchange increased by about 2%. Traders abandoned the resale of gasoline from refineries but fuel was no more

Photo: Evgeny Odinokov / RIA Novosti

What happened?

Wholesale gasoline prices on St. Petersburg international Mercantile exchange (SPIMEX) on Tuesday, November 6, grew on average by 1.7–2.2 percent.

Index of petrol “Regular-92” gained during the trading session of 1.77% and totaled 49,961 thousand rubles. for 1 ton, the index of gasoline “Premium 95” showed the biggest growth of 2.19% to 52,783 thousand rubles per 1 ton. Winter diesel fuel gained 1.4% to 56,106 thousand rubles for 1 ton. The price inflation in opt has resumed after a brief decline before the November holidays — Thursday, November 1, gasoline AI-92 has fallen in price on 2,52%, diesel fuel — by 3.08%, AI-95 — on record of 4.68%.

HSBC noticed the lack of global optimism among Russian companies

Economic optimism of Russian companies on the foreign markets was lower than in other countries surveyed by HSBC Bank. Respondents are more optimistic when the issues relate not to the global situation, and their business

Photo: i-Images / Barcroft Images / TASS

Amid talk of tougher sanctions, the Russian companies are optimistic about the prospects of international trade was lower than the world average, the research showed the HSBC Bank, received by RBC.

The positive Outlook given by representatives of 69% of workers in the country, while globally the figure was 78%.

Study in Russia HSBC held for the first time: experts interviewed the top managers of the 350 companies in different sectors of the economy during six weeks, from July to September. About this period had exacerbation of the sanctions rhetoric in the U.S.: in August the U.S. state Department announced plans to impose sanctions against Russia in connection with the case of the poisoning of the family Skrobala, and U.S. senators prepared a bill to expand sanctions, which may affect foreign investments in the Russian public debt and limit the dollar calculations of the Russian state-owned banks.

The US is ahead of Russia in terms of oil production

American company in August produced a record amount of oil that allowed US to circumvent this indicator Russia. Bloomberg indicates that this achievement can be brief

Photo: Scott Dalton / Bloomberg

In accordance with the data of the statistical division of the U.S. Department of energy in August, the country produced 11,346 million barrels. of oil per day, whereas in Russia the figure was of 11.21 million barrels., specifies Bloomberg. This occurred both through companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico, and thanks to shale oil companies in Texas, Colorado and North Dakota.

Analysts Bloomberg believe that the U.S. superiority may be temporary. According to preliminary information, in September, Russia took the lead again, increasing production amid the us sanctions against Iran and the crisis in Venezuela.

USA was the leader in oil production until 1974, when the first place on this indicator was occupied by the Soviet Union. By the end of 1970-ies, the USSR was producing a third more oil than the United States, and in the late 1980s, the lag of the United States was about 50%. To reduce the gap to the leaders and to get around in the beginning of this year, Saudi Arabia, the Americans managed through the development of shale oil and the changes in legislation which have allowed to develop offshore Alaska.

The price of oil fell below $75

The last time oil traded at that level on August 24

Photo: Matthew Lloyd / Bloomberg

As of 21:45 GMT futures on Brent crude for delivery in January 2019 traded on the London stock exchange at around us $74.8. This is the lowest figure since August 24.

Since intraday trading prices fell by about 1.4%.

Contracts with delivery in December remain at the level of above $75, but the cost is also reduced since the beginning of the month. On October 3, they traded at $86,29.

In Russia from November will reappear Brazilian meat

The Rosselkhoznadzor lifted the ban on meat imports from nine Brazilian companies. In the Russian market of meat from Brazil had been banned since December of 2017, which led to higher prices

Photo: Cris Faga / Zuma / TASS

The Rosselkhoznadzor lifted the ban on the supply of meat of some Brazilian plants to Russia. This was reported to journalists by the official representative of the Rosselkhoznadzor Julia Melano.

“Given all the materials of the investigation and the measures taken to eliminate detected violations, the results of laboratory research products, and guarantees provided by the Secretariat on the protection of plants and animals of the Ministry of agriculture, livestock and supply of Brazil on the conformity of conditions of production and sales, since November 1, 2018 are cancelled temporary restrictions on supplies of Brazilian enterprises”, — said the Agency.

In the attached list of nine companies. A ban on the supply of their products to Russia was withdrawn on 1 November.