In the coming months the ruble will outperform the currencies of other developing countries — they are waiting for the weakening of the ruble will be fixed at current levels until the end of March, says JPMorgan. The margin of safety of the Russian currency due to the undervaluation
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In the coming months, the ruble will be more stable than currencies of other developing countries, such as the Turkish Lira and South African Rand which weakened against the dollar by 30% and 8%, respectively, from foreign currency forecast analyst JPMorgan of aniki Cristovao (have RBC). The Bank gives a neutral recommendation on the rouble, expecting the Russian currency by the end of March to trade near 65,5/$. About the same it costs now — on Monday, the dollar traded for approximately 65.6 per RUB.
The margin of safety of the Russian currency due to the fact that now its value is weaker than the fair rate, says an economist. According to the Bank assessment methodology the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate, BEER), the undervaluation of the ruble is 8.3%. If from the model to exclude the factor of currency purchases in the budgetary rules (Bank of Russia has suspended their August 9), then, on the basis of current oil prices, the undervaluation of the ruble will be 15.6%.
Earlier to similar conclusions came the economist with Deutsche Bank Christian Vitoshka. According to his model, the ruble became the third in the top 21 undervalued currencies. According to Deutsche Bank, support the Russian currency has a group of factors: high real rate and foreign exchange reserves, the suspension of purchases of currency on the budgetary rule and the upcoming increase in correlation with oil.